California’s $200M Gamble: Will Tom Steyer Buy a Spot in November?

California voters head to the polls Tuesday in one of the most expensive and closely watched primary elections in state history, with high-stakes races for governor and lieutenant governor set to determine who advances to November.

Under California's top-two primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party, with only the top two vote-getters moving on to the general election.

California Voters Head to Polls for the top two battles to take center stage

Governor's Race: Will Republicans Reach November?

The governor's race has largely become a battle among former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Republican businessman Steve Hilton, and billionaire entrepreneur Tom Steyer.

Becerra has led most public polls, while Hilton and Steyer have fought for the critical second runoff spot. The outcome will determine whether voters see a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican contest in November or an all-Democratic showdown.

The race has shattered spending records. Steyer has invested more than $200 million of his own money, while outside groups have spent tens of millions more on advertising and voter outreach.

Much of the controversy has centered on Steyer's unprecedented self-funding effort and the growing role of billionaire money in California politics. Meanwhile, supporters of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco have argued he represented the strongest conservative alternative, highlighting his record on public safety and opposition to Sacramento policies.

The key question on Election Day is whether Hilton can consolidate enough Republican and independent support to secure a runoff berth against Becerra.

Lieutenant Governor's Race: Who Joins Fiona Ma?

The lieutenant governor's race carries its own top-two drama.

California State Treasurer Fiona Ma remains the frontrunner, but the battle for second place remains highly competitive. The leading challengers include former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs and Josh Fryday, a former Navy officer and state official backed by Governor Gavin Newsom.

The central question is whether November will feature a Fiona Ma-Michael Tubbs runoff, a Fiona Ma-Josh Fryday matchup, or whether a Republican can capture the second spot and create a Democrat-versus-Republican contest.

With Ma widely expected to advance, the real fight is over who joins her on the November ballot.

What's at Stake

Tuesday's election will help shape California's political direction as voters continue to grapple with housing affordability, homelessness, public safety, energy costs, and the state's fiscal future.

By the end of Election Night, voters should have a much clearer picture of who will be competing for California's top offices this November and whether Republicans can maintain a place on the statewide ballot.

The Political Context in California

California’s political environment is unique. It is a state with a large and diverse population, progressive policies, and a history of grassroots activism. Steyer’s campaign must navigate:

• Competing with established politicians who have deep community ties

• Addressing statewide issues such as wildfire management, immigration, and economic inequality

• Engaging a voter base that often demands accountability and clear policy plans

  
  

The $200 million investment is a bold move to break through these challenges and position Steyer as a viable candidate.

What Could Steyer’s Success Mean for November?

If Steyer secures a spot on the November ballot, it could reshape the race significantly. His presence might:

• Draw votes from other progressive candidates, potentially splitting the vote

• Shift the campaign focus toward environmental and economic reform issues

• Increase voter turnout by energizing younger and more diverse voters

  
  

For voters, this means paying close attention to how Steyer’s campaign evolves and what policies he prioritizes.

What Voters Should Watch Next

As the primary approaches, voters should look for:

• How Steyer’s campaign messages resonate with different communities

• The effectiveness of his outreach efforts in rural versus urban areas

• Responses from other candidates to Steyer’s spending and policy proposals

  
  

Voters can also consider attending local forums or reviewing candidate platforms to make informed decisions.