Tennessee’s 7th District Heads Into a High-Stakes December 2 Showdown: Dueling Monday Night Tele-Rallies and Millions in Outside Spending Tighten a Strong Trump District
- Thomas J. Smith (Staff Writer)
- 9 hours ago
- 3 min read
Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson join a GOP tele-rally as AOC fronts a competing Democratic event, all while new polls show Republicans holding only a narrow edge in a district long considered safely red.
Voters in Middle Tennessee are barreling toward a December 2nd special election that has become one of the most closely watched political fights of the year. What began as a quiet, predictable Republican hold in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District has rapidly escalated into a nationalized battle — complete with top-tier surrogates, millions in outside spending, and polling that now shows the contest inside the margin of error.
Earlier this week, BallotBlog published a full backgrounder on the candidates, district trends, and early polling. Readers can revisit that report here: BallotBlog’s earlier Tennessee-07 election analysis https://www.ballotblog.com/post/december-s-tennessee-special-election-turns-competitive-and-costly
Since then, the race has only intensified.
National Surrogates Jump In: Monday Night Tele-Rallies From Both Parties
Both the Republican and Democratic campaigns will cap off their turnout operations with dueling tele-rallies the night before voters head to the polls.
Tele-Rally: Trump + Speaker Mike Johnson for the GOP
The Republican operation is pulling out its biggest guns. Former President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson will headline a Monday evening tele-rally backing GOP nominee Matt Van Epps, underscoring how seriously Republicans view the tightening numbers in a district they would normally expect to win comfortably. https://www.axios.com/2025/11/28/trump-mike-johnson-tele-rally-tennessee-house-race
Tele-Rally: AOC for Democrat Aftyn Behn
Democrats are matching the push. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will host her own Monday-night tele-rally for Aftyn Behn, aiming to energize young voters, progressives, and suburban blocs stretching across western Davidson and Williamson counties.
The fact that national leaders from both parties are inserting themselves into a deep-red Tennessee district tells the story: this contest has become far more competitive than anyone expected.
Polling: A Trump+20 District Now a Toss-Up
Fresh numbers from Emerson College Polling / The Hill show the race tightening to striking levels:
Matt Van Epps (R): 48%
Aftyn Behn (D): 46%
Undecided / Other: 7%(Margin of error: ±3.9)
Including leaners, the contest narrows to 49%–47%, giving Republicans only a slight edge.
This represents a dramatic shift from October polling, when GOP numbers were far stronger:
Impact Research (Oct. 16–19): Van Epps +8
Workbench Strategy (Oct. 15–19): Van Epps +10
A major factor is turnout composition. Early voting has shown a clear tilt toward Behn’s coalition, while Election Day voters — strongly conservative — lean toward Van Epps. With only a few days left, the decisive question is which side gets its people to the polls.
Millions in Outside Spending: One of the Costliest House Specials of 2025
The Tennessee Lookout recently reported that outside groups have now spent around $7 million in this race — an extraordinary figure for a Middle Tennessee House contest.¹
Breakdown of the outside money includes:
$1.8 million from Democratic-aligned PACs backing Behn
$2.3 million from GOP-aligned PACs supporting Van Epps
$1 million from House Majority PAC for pro-Behn TV and digital ads
Over $1.7 million from Trump-allied and conservative groups boosting Van Epps
On the candidate level:
Aftyn Behn has raised about $1.23 million, with over $521,000 cash on hand
Matt Van Epps has raised nearly $993,000, with about $231,167 cash on hand
These totals — paired with the surge of national attention — make this one of the most expensive congressional special elections of the year.
Why Tuesday Matters Nationally
Republicans currently hold the House by one of the narrowest margins in memory. A Democratic flip here would push the majority to the brink and instantly reshape the legislative battlefield in Washington.
Even if Van Epps holds the seat, the closeness of the contest in a strong Trump district will be analyzed intensely by both parties as they prepare for the 2026 midterms. Tennessee’s 7th may be a red district, but this week’s tightening numbers prove nothing is automatic anymore.
With competing tele-rallies, millions on the airwaves, and new polling pointing to a photo-finish, Tuesday’s special election is now one of 2025’s defining political moments.
(Primary Sources)
Tennessee Lookout — “Super PACs have now spent $7 million in Middle TN U.S. House special election”:https://tennesseelookout.com/2025/11/25/super-pacs-have-now-spent-7-million-in-middle-tn-u-s-house-special-election-with-a-week-to-go/
Roll Call — “House Majority PAC commits $1 million to Aftyn Behn in Tennessee’s 7th District”:https://rollcall.com/2025/11/21/tennessee-special-election-democrats-republicans/
Candidate fundraising totals compiled from FEC filings & publicly accessible summaries:https://ballotpedia.org/
FEC data portal: https://www.fec.gov/data/browse-data/
FEC Primary Source — Official TN-07 Special Election Filing Calendar (PDF):https://www.fec.gov/documents/5921/tn07.pdf
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