December’s Tennessee Special Election Turns Competitive — And Costly
- Thomas J. Smith (Staff Writer)
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
House Dem Super PAC Drops $1,000,000
The December 2, 2025 special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District—normally a sleepy affair in a deep-red seat—has exploded into one of the most closely watched, heavily funded House contests of the year. Once considered solidly Republican territory, TN-7 has tightened enough to draw national investment, sharpen campaign messaging, and shift the political narrative heading into 2026.
The contest began when Rep. Mark Green (R) resigned on July 20, 2025 to take a private-sector post. Green had held the seat since January 3, 2019, following nearly 16 years of Republican representation by Marsha Blackburn and Ed Bryant before him. Republicans have controlled the district for more than four decades.Sources: Ballotpedia; Associated Press.
A Deep-Red District with Emerging Cracks
TN-7 spans western Nashville, Clarksville, and rural Middle Tennessee. It has long been a GOP stronghold:
Green won nearly 70% in 2020
Trump carried the district by 22 points in 2024
Analysts rate it around R+20
Sources: Ballotpedia; Inside Elections.
But 2020 redistricting reshaped the seat. GOP mapmakers split Nashville into multiple districts, folding Democratic precincts into TN-7 while reinforcing rural Republican counties. Even so, the demographic and turnout patterns are shifting.
Turnout in the October primaries dropped over 75% in GOP areas, while Democratic precincts saw milder declines—a development Democrats view as their biggest potential advantage in a low-turnout special.Source: Tennessee Lookout.
Why Democrats Believe the Seat Is in Play
1. GOP Turnout Collapse
Republicans underperformed sharply in the primary phase, especially in Williamson, Cheatham, and rural counties. Democrats hope that the special election timing—right after Thanksgiving—will exacerbate that gap.
2. Polling Is Tighter Than Expected
Recent Impact Research polling shows Matt Van Epps (R) leading Aftyn Behn (D) by just 8 points, with models showing the margin as low as 3 points depending on turnout.Sources: Ellis Insight; Politico polling summaries.
3. Suburban Drift
Nashville’s western suburbs and Clarksville are growing, diversifying, and trending away from GOP dominance.Source: AP, Ballotpedia district breakdown.
4. High National Stakes
Democrats have over-performed in multiple red-leaning specials since 2023. TN-7 is now viewed as a bellwether for 2026 midterm enthusiasm.Source: Politico.
A Late-Stage Controversy Hits the Democratic Nominee
The race took a sharp turn when a resurfaced 2020 podcast clip showed Aftyn Behn saying:
“I hate this city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music.”
The “city” was Nashville—part of the district she is seeking to represent.
Republicans quickly blasted the clip across social media and targeted ads, framing Behn as culturally hostile to Nashville’s identity. The controversy has been one of the most damaging late-campaign developments.Sources: FOX17 Nashville; FOX News.
Candidate Profiles
Matt Van Epps (R)
A veteran backed by Donald Trump, he unified the GOP primary field and now tries to balance MAGA appeal with suburban sensibilities. His team has leaned heavily on outside support to maintain his advantage.
Aftyn Behn (D)
A social worker and progressive activist, Behn campaigns on affordability, eliminating the grocery tax, expanding health access, and building a “coalition of the fed-up.” The Nashville remark clip, however, has forced a defensive posture in the final stretch.
Jon Thorp (I)
An independent who has raised only a few thousand dollars. Though not competitive, he could siphon votes from soft Republicans or anti-establishment conservatives.
Money Floods the District
Candidate Fundraising (FEC Reports)
Aftyn Behn (D)
Raised: $1.23 million
Spent: $708,892
Cash on Hand: $521,737
Matt Van Epps (R)
Raised: $992,716
Spent: $761,549
Cash on Hand: $231,167
Sources: Ballotpedia; Associated Press; FEC filings.
Outside Spending Surges
Democratic Side
House Majority PAC: $1,000,000 in ads and digital (first major Dem investment)
DNC: Field organizing + six-figure support
Republican Side
MAGA Inc.: Over $1,000,000
Club for Growth Action: $328,000
Conservatives for American Excellence: $672,000
RNC: Six-figure ground game
Sources: Roll Call; Politico; AP News.
Total outside spending now exceeds $3 million, making this one of the most expensive House specials of the cycle.
What to Watch on Election Night
Turnout:If Republicans cannot rebound from their primary slump, the race could be far closer than historic patterns suggest.
Suburban margins:Clarksville and Nashville’s western suburbs are the battleground inside the battleground.
Impact of the Behn Controversy:Whether the backlash sticks or fizzles will determine her ceiling.
National implications:A narrower-than-usual GOP win would feed stories of Republican weakness heading into 2026. A true upset would reshape the entire House map overnight.
Sources (Full List)
Tennessee Lookout – Nov. 10, 2025 turnout report
Ballotpedia – TN-7 Special Election 2025 profile
Associated Press – Tennessee political coverage, vacancy details
Politico – spending, polling, candidate analysis
Roll Call – GOP outside spending details
Ellis Insight – polling summary
FOX17 Nashville – resurfaced Behn remarks
FOX News – coverage of controversy