Nevada’s 2026 Governor’s Race: Lombardo and Ford Head Toward a True Toss-Up

Nevada is once again preparing for a marquee statewide showdown. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, the former Clark County Sheriff who defeated Democrat Steve Sisolak in 2022, is seeking a second and final term. Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is setting up a major challenge, launching what is already shaping into one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the West.

With early polling showing the two men essentially tied, and with Nevada’s political landscape as evenly divided as ever, the 2026 governor’s race may ultimately hinge on turnout, undecided independents, and the strength of each campaign’s operation heading into the fall.

Primary and General Election Dates

Nevada will hold its statewide primary election on June 9, 2026, followed by the general election on November 3, 2026.Sources: Ballotpedia; Wikipedia (Nevada 2026 Elections)

Candidate filing for statewide office opens March 2–3, giving the campaigns roughly five months to shore up their bases before the primary and another five to lock in the statewide vote before November.

The Candidates

Gov. Joe Lombardo (R – Incumbent)

Lombardo’s law-enforcement background remains central to his public identity, especially in Clark County where he served as Sheriff. His 2022 victory delivered Republicans the governorship for the first time since 1999.

Attorney General Aaron Ford (D – Challenger)

Ford, the current Attorney General, is positioning himself as a change-driven alternative to Lombardo. His early campaign activity includes statewide travel, aggressive digital operations, and significant outreach to working-class voters.

Additional Democratic Candidate: Alexis Hill

Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill has also entered the race, giving Democrats a contested, if not deeply fractured, primary.

Sources: Nevada Independent; Review-Journal candidate announcements; Wikipedia entries

Fundraising Snapshot

Money plays an outsized role in Nevada, particularly because of Las Vegas–based media markets. Here’s where the campaigns stand:

Joe Lombardo (R)

• Raised $3.2 million in 2024, setting a Nevada record for an incumbent governor two years out.

• Holds more than $5.5 million cash-on-hand.Source: Nevada Independent, “Lombardo Raised $3.2M in 2024…”

  
  

Aaron Ford (D)

Ford posted historic early numbers:

• Broke the state record for largest first-month fundraising haul by a non-incumbent Democrat running for statewide office.

• Reported $537,000 raised in 2024 with roughly $440,000 cash on hand.Sources: Ford for Nevada press release; Nevada political press coverage

Overall Takeaway:Lombardo enters the race with the financial upper hand, but Ford’s early momentum signals donor enthusiasm and a credible Democratic challenge.

Early Polling: A Dead Heat

Nevada’s political DNA has been competitive for over a decade, and the polling this cycle once again reflects razor-thin margins.

Recent Public Polls

• Emerson College (Nov. 2025)

  • Lombardo: 41%

  • Ford: 41%

  • Undecided: 18%

  • Lombardo Approval: 34% approve / 36% disapproveSource: Las Vegas Review-Journal coverage

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• Noble Predictive Insights (Oct. 2025)

  • Lombardo: 40%

  • Ford: 37%

  • Undecided: 23%Source: Noble Predictive Insights polling report

    
    

Interpretation

Both campaigns have paths to victory. The deciding factor may be Nevada’s unusually large block of undecided voters — roughly one-fifth of the electorate in multiple surveys.

Comparing 2026 to the 2022 Cycle

Four years ago, then-Sheriff Lombardo and Gov. Steve Sisolak were also locked in a close contest. Polls consistently showed a narrow margin, and undecided voters leaned late toward Lombardo.

Lombardo’s final margin in 2022 was 48.8%, flipping the governorship after Democrats held it for two decades.

The key difference now?Lombardo must defend a record, not introduce one — and Ford must scale up his campaign infrastructure to match an incumbent’s financial and organizational strength.

Sources: Nevada Independent election analysis; 2022 Nevada results (Wikipedia)

Strategic Realities Heading Into 2026

• Nevada remains a pure swing state, with a Republican governor and a Democratic-controlled Legislature.

• Economy is the top issue, with about 40% of voters citing it in surveys.

• Clark County dominates, but Republicans rely heavily on strong rural turnout and a competitive performance in Washoe County.

• Lombardo’s approval numbers are middling, leaving the door open for Ford if economic concerns intensify.

Sources: Nevada Independent issue surveys; Review-Journal polling coverage

What to Watch Going Forward

1. Undecided voters (18–23%)

2. Fundraising gap between Lombardo and Ford

3. Approval trajectory for the incumbent

4. Turnout patterns in Clark, Washoe, and rural Nevada

5. Tone of the Democratic primary, Ford vs. Hill