Christmas Shopping 2025: What the Final Holiday Numbers Tell Us About the U.S. Economy
- Bill Postmus (Staff Writer)
- Dec 27, 2025
- 3 min read
As the 2025 Christmas season comes to a close, the data paints a clear and consistent picture: Americans are still spending, still shopping in stores, and still embracing the holidays just with a more disciplined, value-driven approach than in years past.
This was not a runaway spending year, nor was it a pullback. Instead, Christmas 2025 reflects a steady, resilient consumer economy, shaped by inflation awareness, digital convenience, and traditional in-store habits that refuse to disappear.
Holiday Sales Top the Trillion-Dollar Mark—Again
Industry tracking from the National Retail Federation (NRF), combined with payment-network data, shows U.S. holiday retail sales for November–December 2025 grew by approximately 4% year over year, placing total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion.
That performance closely mirrors 2024, when holiday sales rose about 4% to just under $1 trillion. Rather than dramatic swings, the past three Christmas seasons point to a pattern of moderate, dependable growth—a sign consumers have adjusted to higher prices, interest rates, and economic uncertainty without abandoning seasonal spending.
Online Shopping Sets Another Record
E-commerce continued its steady climb in 2025. According to Adobe Analytics, online holiday spending is projected to reach approximately $253.4 billion, a 5%+ increase over 2024 and another all-time record.
Online purchases now account for roughly one-quarter of all U.S. holiday retail sales, a share that has grown consistently year after year. Mobile devices played an increasingly important role, with smartphones driving a large share of digital transactions as consumers shopped, compared prices, and completed purchases on the go.
Still, the data makes one thing clear: online shopping is a complement to physical retail—not a replacement.
Brick-and-Mortar Retail Still Anchors the Holidays
Despite the growth of digital commerce, roughly 70–75% of holiday purchases in 2025 were still made in physical stores, according to Visa and Mastercard SpendingPulse data cited by Reuters.
Foot traffic patterns continue to evolve. Store visits were slightly lower on traditional marquee days like Black Friday, but surged during peak shopping windows such as Super Saturday and the final days before Christmas.
Consumers are making fewer casual browsing trips and more purpose-driven visits, often after researching prices online.
The mall may look different than it did twenty years ago—but it remains central to the Christmas economy.
Mobile Payments and Buy Now, Pay Later Continue to Grow
How Americans shop is changing almost as much as where they shop:
Mobile shopping accounted for a growing share of online purchases
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) usage increased again in 2025, allowing consumers to spread out holiday costs
Digital wallets and app-based checkouts are now standard features of the retail experience
These tools didn’t dramatically inflate spending, but they helped sustain consumer participation in the holiday economy, particularly among middle-income households managing tighter monthly budgets.
How 2025 Stacks Up Against Recent Years
Looking back helps put this season in perspective:
2023 online holiday spending: ~$222 billion
2024 online holiday spending: ~$241 billion
2025 online holiday spending: ~$253 billion (projected)
Over the same period, total U.S. holiday retail sales consistently grew in the 3–4% range, reinforcing the view that consumer spending has stabilized rather than surged—or collapsed.
The Bottom Line
Christmas shopping in 2025 didn’t signal an overheated economy or a struggling one. Instead, it reflected a country that has recalibrated.
Consumers are cautious but confident, digitally savvy yet still tied to tradition. They’re price-aware, selective, and practical—but still willing to spend when it matters.
For retailers, policymakers, and voters alike, the message is clear: the American consumer remains resilient, even in an era of higher costs and economic uncertainty.
BallotBlog Data Snapshot
Holiday sales growth: ~4% year over year
Total spending: $1.01–$1.02 trillion (estimated)
Online holiday spending: ~$253.4 billion (projected)
Online vs. in-store share: ~25% online / ~75% physical retail
Key trends: rising mobile shopping, increased BNPL usage, targeted in-store visit
Sources
National Retail Federation (NRF) – 2025 Holiday Sales Forecast & Retail Monitoring Reports
Adobe Analytics – 2025 Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Digital Commerce Reports
Visa Retail Spend Monitor – U.S. Holiday Season Spending Updates
Mastercard SpendingPulse – Holiday Retail Sales Tracking
Reuters – U.S. holiday spending coverage and retail analysis (Nov–Dec 2025)
U.S. Census Bureau – Retail sales benchmarks and historical comparisons
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